Coffee Market Conditions at the End of October and Supply Outlook for November 2026

Prepared by Nam Son Phu Tho Audience: importers, roasters, distributors, beverage manufacturers and OEM/private-label partners

1. Message from Nam Son

At the end of October 2026, the coffee market is moving from the end of the old crop into the first stage of the new crop. International coffee prices remain volatile, driven by expectations for Vietnam’s new-crop supply, weather developments in major origins, certified exchange stocks and physical buying demand.

At Nam Son, we focus on supplying B2B buyers with green coffee products, including Robusta S16 Clean, Robusta S18 Clean, Robusta S16 Wet Polished, Robusta S18 Wet Polished and Arabica S16 Grade 2. In addition to bulk green coffee, we support customized packaging, OEM/private-label projects and export documentation requirements for different markets.

Coffee pricing during this period should be understood through three layers: international futures, the differential for Vietnamese physical coffee and logistics costs. Therefore, Nam Son’s quotation for each order depends on the grade, crop, processing method, quality, quantity, shipment timing, destination and Incoterm.

2. Coffee price movements at the end of October 2026

According to the settlement data for 22 October 2026, December 2026 Arabica closed at 312.45 cents per pound, down 3.70 cents or 1.17%. November 2026 London Robusta closed at USD 3,288 per metric ton, down USD 64 per ton or 1.91%. January 2027 Robusta fell by USD 63 per ton to USD 3,301 per ton. These are closing reference prices, not realtime quotes or fixed prices for every Nam Son lot.

The move indicates clearer short-term pressure on nearby Robusta contracts. The market is expecting Vietnam’s new-crop supply to increase gradually, while international buyers are waiting for more information about harvesting speed and the volume of physical coffee entering the market.

However, prices can reverse quickly. At the end of September, November Robusta rose by USD 45 per ton to USD 3,412 per ton in one session as the market reacted to weather risk, El Niño concerns and inventory developments.

For this reason, we recommend that buyers do not base their procurement plan on a single up or down session. Buyers should separate nearby delivery requirements from new-crop requirements. For coffee needed in November and December, early confirmation can reduce the risk of limited availability for a specific grade or a higher physical basis.

3. Nam Son coffee products

Robusta S16 Clean

Robusta S16 Clean is green coffee that has been cleaned and screened to size 16. This grade is suitable for commercial roasting, espresso blends, instant coffee production, beverages and private-label products.

For Robusta R16 Clean from Dak Lak, Nam Son publishes the following reference specifications:

•Screen: minimum 90% above screen 16;

•Moisture: maximum 12.5%;

•Black and broken beans: maximum 1%;

•Foreign matter: maximum 0.1%;

•Processing: cleaned;

•Crop: new crop;

•Packaging: 60 kg jute bags, 50 kg PP bags, jumbo bags or customized packaging.

These specifications are product references. For each order, we reconfirm the sample, COA, lot specifications and buyer-specific requirements before final confirmation.

Robusta S18 Clean

Robusta S18 Clean has a larger bean size and more uniform appearance. It is suitable for buyers requiring a higher screen grade for commercial roasting, espresso blends or products where bean appearance and roasting performance are important.

On 7 July 2026, Nam Son completed an export shipment of 20 metric tons of Robusta S18 Clean to the UAE. The shipment was described as Vietnamese-origin Robusta, cleaned processing, export-standard packaging and moisture not exceeding 12.5%.

This shipment is a concrete example of Nam Son’s ability to prepare and export S18 coffee. For subsequent orders, we confirm the crop, available quantity, preparation time, sample, container loading schedule and vessel schedule for each shipment.

Robusta S16/S18 Wet Polished

Wet Polished products are suitable for buyers who require specific bean appearance and surface-processing characteristics. When quoting Wet Polished coffee, we first align on stabilized moisture, uniformity, packaging, storage conditions and inspection standards at destination.

We recommend that buyers request and approve a roasting sample before placing a large-volume order, because the required profile may differ depending on the final application.

Arabica S16 S18

For Arabica, we recommend confirming the origin, processing method, screen, defect classification, moisture and cup profile before contract signing.

4. Nam Son supply outlook for November 2026

USDA forecasts Vietnam’s MY 2026/27 coffee production at 32.5 million 60 kg bags, up from 31.7 million bags in MY 2025/26. Robusta production is forecast at 31.4 million bags, while exports are forecast at 28.95 million bags.

This creates a positive foundation for Vietnam’s overall supply, but national production does not mean that every grade will be available at the same time. Nam Son’s delivery timing depends on:

•raw material availability by origin;

•the amount already cleaned and screened;

•the percentage meeting S16 or S18 requirements;

•Clean or Wet Polished processing;

•moisture and defect test results;

•buyer volume requirements;

•container loading and vessel schedules.

For November delivery, buyers should send the product, grade, quantity, destination port, Incoterm, delivery window, packaging requirements and required documents as early as possible. Nam Son will then check availability and prepare the appropriate sample and quotation.

5. How Nam Son manages quotations

During a volatile market, an old quotation should not be applied to every shipment period. Each quotation should clearly state:

•quotation date and time;

•product and grade;

•crop and origin;

•processing method;

•moisture, defect and screen requirements;

•minimum order quantity;

•FOB, CIF or other Incoterm;

•quotation validity;

•expected shipment window;

•required documents.

For nearby shipments, Nam Son may provide a short-validity quotation depending on raw-material availability and vessel schedules. For forward shipments, both parties may agree on a price-to-be-fixed mechanism or another formula linked to the Robusta reference contract, differential and fixation date.

Buyers should distinguish between:

Futures price: the international exchange reference. Differential/basis: the premium or discount for Nam Son’s physical coffee against the reference price. Physical cost: procurement, cleaning, processing loss, packaging, inland transport, inspection, port charges and freight.

These three elements may move in different directions. The final FOB or CIF price must therefore be confirmed for each specific lot.

6. Quality control and export documentation

Before shipment, Nam Son focuses on raw-material selection, cleaning, screen grading, moisture control, final inspection and export packaging.

Depending on buyer requirements, the export document set may include:

•Commercial Invoice;

•Packing List;

•Bill of Lading;

•Certificate of Origin;

•Phytosanitary Certificate;

•Quality Certificate or COA;

•additional documents required by the destination market.

Buyers should confirm in advance the required standards for screen, moisture, black and broken beans, foreign matter, total defects, insect damage, residues, mycotoxins, cup profile or other plant-specific parameters. We will compare those requirements with the relevant product and sample before confirming the order.

For buyers requiring deeper traceability, Nam Son can discuss origin information, chain of custody, raw-material documentation and the data required for the destination market’s due-diligence process.

7. Three coffee price scenarios for November 2026

Scenario 1: Stable or moderately lower prices

New-crop supply enters the market steadily, physical selling increases and London Robusta remains under pressure. In this scenario, buyers can divide their purchasing schedule, cover nearby requirements and continue monitoring forward shipments.

Scenario 2: A renewed price increase

Adverse weather, slower harvesting, unstable early-crop quality or producer retention may cause the physical basis to strengthen. Vietnamese physical prices could then rise faster than futures. Buyers should maintain minimum coverage for nearby requirements.

Scenario 3: Futures decline while physical prices remain firm

This can happen when procurement, processing, foreign-exchange or logistics costs rise. A lower London price does not automatically mean that the FOB price of a specific grade will fall by the same number of points. Nam Son must reconfirm the price based on the actual lot condition.

8. How Nam Son supports buyers

Our B2B supply process is:

1.Receive the buyer’s product, grade, quantity and destination requirements.

2.Check availability and delivery feasibility.

3.Provide specifications, samples and a quotation.

4.Confirm quality standards, packaging and documentation.

5.Prepare, clean, screen and inspect the coffee lot.

6.Load the container and coordinate export documents.

7.Track shipment progress and provide post-shipment support.

For OEM and private-label projects, we can also discuss packaging, labeling, product specifications, minimum order quantity, design requirements and production lead time.

9. Conclusion from Nam Son

Nam Son Phu Tho focuses on B2B green coffee products with clear commercial applications: Robusta S16 Clean, Robusta S18 Clean, Robusta S16/S18 Wet Polished and Arabica S16 Grade 2. We completed a 20-metric-ton Robusta S18 Clean export shipment to the UAE in July 2026 and continue to develop supply solutions for importers, roasters, distributors, beverage manufacturers and OEM partners.

In November 2026, the market will continue to respond to London Robusta, the pace of new-crop arrivals, weather, Vietnam differentials and logistics. Nam Son works with buyers on a lot-by-lot basis, providing clear specifications, samples before confirmation and quotations updated according to market conditions.

Buyers sourcing Robusta S16, S18, Wet Polished or Arabica S16 Grade 2 are invited to send us the required quantity, specifications, destination port and delivery window so that Nam Son can check availability and prepare a suitable quotation.

Data note

The futures prices in this update are closing prices for 22 October 2026 reported by a market-research source, not realtime prices or fixed Nam Son quotations. Product specifications and shipment information are based on content published by Nam Son. Each order remains subject to confirmation based on the sample, availability, actual quality and agreed commercial terms.